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Blog Archives
The Fed is about to end rate hikes with inflation set ...
The Federal Reserve is gearing up for its last interest rate hike at its upcoming meeting with wage inflation set to weaken, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat. Read full story
Redfin: Apartment rents post first annual decline sinc...
Median apartment rents fell on a year-over-year basis in March for the first time since early 2020, according to Redfin, with rates declining 0.4% to $1,937. An increase in supply and diminished consumer sentiment contributed to the decline. However, rents are still up 19.9% from three years ago. Read full story
The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Wh...
Thomas Hoenig doesn’t look like a rebel. He is a conservative man, soft-spoken, now happily retired at the age of 75. He acts like someone who has spent the vast majority of his career, as he has, working at one of the stuffiest and powerful institutions in America: the Federal Reserve Bank. Hoenig has all the fiery disposition… Read full story
Biden renews foreclosure ban one last time
The Biden administration today re-upped the foreclosure ban for federally backed mortgages for a final month. Read full story
CDC prolongs eviction moratorium by one month
The CDC is extending its eviction moratorium by one month, meaning that it will last through July. “Keeping people in their homes and out of crowded or congregate settings — like homeless shelters — by preventing evictions is a key step in helping to stop the spread of COVID-19,” the CDC noted. Read full story
The Days of Low Treasury Yields Are Numbered
The benchmark 10-year rate is likely to more than double in coming years. Read full story
Apartment rents rise as people head back to cities
Apartment rents registered an increase last month, with the median asking rate rising 1.1% on an annual basis — the first month since last summer that the pace of rent growth has climbed, according to Realtor.com. Some experts think the rental market is due for another period of growth, which could be accelerated by rising home prices. Read full story
CDC’s eviction moratorium extended for 3 months
The CDC is extending its eviction moratorium for another three months, until the end of June, although at least two judges have recently questioned the CDC’s authority to implement the ban in the first place. The government has provided tens of billions in rental assistance, but it will take more time to distribute the aid. Read full story
Up to $28B in Distressed Retail Could Hit the Market i...
So far, lenders have been open to loan workouts, but that won’t last forever, market sources warn. Read Full Story
Here’s What Rising Interest Rates Mean For Cap Rates
Rising interest rates are unlikely to push cap rates up this year, counter to what many investors may believe, according to new analysis from Marcus & Millichap. The interest rate on ten-year Treasuries has nearly tripled since the end of July, when it was at an all-time low near 50 basis points. But rates remain near historical lows, a good sign for investors, according …
Home Prices Soar
The forbearance numbers out today are good — we’re down to about 2.5 million homeowners in forbearance, the lowest number since last March, and the numbers dropped across all investor categories. However, more than 11% of those still in forbearance have exceeded the 12-month mark, and Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, says many of those could opt for the recent forbearance extension of up …
Apartment tenants still waiting for relief money
Apartment tenants in many parts of the country are still waiting for states to distribute their share of $25 billion in assistance lawmakers passed in December, with the delays attributed to the need to set up new systems and protect against fraud. An additional $20 billion could be appropriated under the $1.9 trillion relief bill that just passed the House. Read Full Story
Newmark: Multifamily Sales Volume Strong in Q4
Investors most active in December, with $24.9 billion in sales. Read full story
CMBS Week in Review: Strong Retail Sales; Companies Sh...
US stocks finished in positive territory last Friday as investors piled into economically-sensitive firms that have been hit hard by the pandemic in recent months, placing their bets that continued progress on vaccine distribution and additional stimulus spending will help ramp up economic recovery. Read full story
US Jobless Claims Rise to 861,000 as Layoffs Remain Hi...
WASHINGTON—The number of Americans applying for unemployment aid rose last week to 861,000, evidence that layoffs remain painfully high despite a steady drop in the number of confirmed viral infections. Read full story
What Landlords Should Consider as Eviction Moratoriums...
Many landlords had been eagerly anticipating the end of the CDC eviction moratorium that was slated for the end of 2020. While no landlord relishes having to evict tenants who are struggling due to the economic impact of COVID-19, the industry has been left with little other choice, given the complete lack of support offered by the government to landlords. Read full story
HUD extends COVID-19 forbearance for FHA loans
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development on Tuesday extended COVID-19 foreclosure and forbearance moratoriums for FHA and USDA loans to June 30, 2021. It also extended the deadline for the first legal action and the reasonable diligence time frame to 180 days. Read full story
Fed could hold interest rates near zero for years
The Federal Reserve will keep its key interest rates close to zero until inflation exceeds its 2% target, something most Fed board members do not expect to happen before 2023. “Effectively what we are saying is that rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced. Read full story
Weekly jobless claims rise for first time in months
Initial unemployment claims reached 1.4 million last week, marking an increase of 109,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Labor Department. It was the first increase in weekly claims in almost four months. “I think unemployment applications are going to be sticky at this level because many states are seeing a reassertion of the virus,” says Michelle Holder, an economist at John …
Podcast: Improving CMBS Delinquency Rates?
We’re only mid-way into July, but early indications are that delinquency rates are improving. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the factors behind a potentially declining CMBS delinquency rate, noteworthy CRE headlines of the week, the CMBX 10 index, shifts in the office market, and takeaways from bank earnings. Listen now.
4.8M jobs added to payrolls in June, Labor Dept. says
Nonfarm payrolls gained 4.8 million jobs last month, according to the Labor Department, beating expectations from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. Read full story
Coronavirus drives $21B of CMBS loans to special servi...
About $21 billion of CMBS loans have been moved to special servicing since the middle of March — more than double the total for all of 2019, according to Fitch Ratings. Hotel and retail properties have accounted for the most transfers to special servicing. Read full story
Lawmakers ask for relief for CMBS borrowers
More than 100 members of Congress are requesting that the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration support real estate borrowers who are unable to keep up with payments on debt tied to CMBS. “Without a long-term relief plan in the face of an elongated crisis, CMBS borrowers could face a historic wave of foreclosures starting this fall, impacting local communities and destroying jobs for …
Fannie, Freddie announce financial advisers
Fannie Mae has hired Morgan Stanley and Freddie Mac has hired JPMorgan Chase as financial advisers, a necessary step toward recapitalization and an exit from government custodianship. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria has told lawmakers the exit plans have been delayed by the coronavirus pandemic and could be further affected by borrowers’ repayment difficulties. Read full story
CBO: Coronavirus recovery could take 10 years
The economy will require as long as a decade to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office says. The CBO has cut its forecast for economic output from 2020 to 2030 by $7.9 trillion, or 3% of GDP. Read full story
US GDP fell faster than previously thought in Q1
US GDP fell at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter, surpassing the earlier estimate of a 4.8% drop, according to the Commerce Department. Economists believe GDP could fall at a much faster pace in the current quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. Read full story
Fed chair sees need for more economic relief
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the pandemic could cause long-term damage to the economy and asked lawmakers to consider additional spending to mitigate the harm. Read full story
CBRE forecasts long recovery period for CRE
The recovery of the US commercial real estate sector will take place after the recovery of the broader economy, and some asset classes could take as long as 30 months to rebound, according to CBRE. “It will take several years for vacancy rates to fall back to their pre-crisis levels,” says CBRE’s Richard Barkham. Read full story
Servicers face “greatest nightmare ever” as coronaviru...
There is no question that mortgage originators have faced difficulties in the past few weeks. But for servicers, the situation is much more dire as they face problems on multiple fronts caused by the virus, along with the increase in demand. Read full story
Fed ready to inject more than $5T into system
The Federal Reserve will offer to inject a total of more than $5 trillion in liquidity into funding markets in coming weeks to manage short-term financing rates. Read full story
Class B & C Investors Circling Secondary, Tertiar...
With demand stronger than ever, competition is stiffest for older properties with potential. Read full story
Individual investors flock to public non-listed REITs
Individual investors are showing enthusiasm for public non-listed REITs in the hopes of securing strong returns and stable income flows. Investment firms brought in $10 billion for these funds during the first 11 months of last year, up from a combined total of $8.8 billion for 2018 and 2017, according to Robert A. Stanger & Co. Read full story
2020 Multifamily Real Estate Predictions
Research firm CBRE highlights healthy growth in the suburban multifamily market that will outpace performance in urban centers. These areas will enjoy lower vacancy rates and post higher rent growth. Read full story
Powell’s messaging on interest rates will be car...
The market is expecting the Federal Reserve to make another quarter-percentage-point rate cut during its meeting this week, but it is is less clear what signals the Fed will send about future policy decisions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely seek to develop a message that avoids market backlash without suggesting that there definitely will or won’t be additional rate cuts. Read full story
As Flood and Terrorism Insurance Programs Near Expirat...
The owners of apartment properties may soon struggle to renew insurance policies for floods and terror attacks, and that may already be increasing the difficulty in securing financing or refinancing for those properties. Read full story
Fed makes 2nd consecutive rate cut
The Federal Reserve has reduced the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2%. Chairman Jerome Powell says that prospects for the US economy are favorable and that any future interest-rate adjustment would be made “meeting by meeting.” Read full story
OECD forecasts slowest global growth in 10 years
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is projecting global economic growth of 2.9% this year, the smallest annual increase in 10 years, as the US-China trade conflict continues. The OECD downgraded its forecast for the US and now expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019. Read full story
Interest rates expected to be cut by a quarter point
Another rate cut from the Federal Reserve is expected when the central bank meets in two weeks, and it could be a quarter-point decrease. Opinions among the Fed’s bank presidents differ, with some saying no additional rate cuts are needed and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard calling for a bigger cut. Read full story
Advisors—And Clients—Aren’t Rattled by Market Plunge
Many advisors have trained their clients to expect the kind of market volatility seen Monday. And while most aren’t making any sudden movements, some are tweaking asset allocations. Read full story
The Trump Bump is Kaput
Has confidence in the stock market fatally slipped? Read full story