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Category Archives: Economy
The Fed is about to end rate hikes with inflation set ...
The Federal Reserve is gearing up for its last interest rate hike at its upcoming meeting with wage inflation set to weaken, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat. Read full story
The Days of Low Treasury Yields Are Numbered
The benchmark 10-year rate is likely to more than double in coming years. Read full story
CDC’s eviction moratorium extended for 3 months
The CDC is extending its eviction moratorium for another three months, until the end of June, although at least two judges have recently questioned the CDC’s authority to implement the ban in the first place. The government has provided tens of billions in rental assistance, but it will take more time to distribute the aid. Read full story
Up to $28B in Distressed Retail Could Hit the Market i...
So far, lenders have been open to loan workouts, but that won’t last forever, market sources warn. Read Full Story
Here’s What Rising Interest Rates Mean For Cap Rates
Rising interest rates are unlikely to push cap rates up this year, counter to what many investors may believe, according to new analysis from Marcus & Millichap. The interest rate on ten-year Treasuries has nearly tripled since the end of July, when it was at an all-time low near 50 basis points. But rates remain near historical lows, a good sign for investors, according …
Home Prices Soar
The forbearance numbers out today are good — we’re down to about 2.5 million homeowners in forbearance, the lowest number since last March, and the numbers dropped across all investor categories. However, more than 11% of those still in forbearance have exceeded the 12-month mark, and Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, says many of those could opt for the recent forbearance extension of up …
Apartment tenants still waiting for relief money
Apartment tenants in many parts of the country are still waiting for states to distribute their share of $25 billion in assistance lawmakers passed in December, with the delays attributed to the need to set up new systems and protect against fraud. An additional $20 billion could be appropriated under the $1.9 trillion relief bill that just passed the House. Read Full Story
CMBS Week in Review: Strong Retail Sales; Companies Sh...
US stocks finished in positive territory last Friday as investors piled into economically-sensitive firms that have been hit hard by the pandemic in recent months, placing their bets that continued progress on vaccine distribution and additional stimulus spending will help ramp up economic recovery. Read full story
US Jobless Claims Rise to 861,000 as Layoffs Remain Hi...
WASHINGTON—The number of Americans applying for unemployment aid rose last week to 861,000, evidence that layoffs remain painfully high despite a steady drop in the number of confirmed viral infections. Read full story
The Fed plots a slow, stable path on mortgage rates
The FOMC statement released today showed the Fed will stick to its current pace of bond buying to keep rates low, even if there is small movement on inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press briefing after the release that he expects to see inflation readings tick higher in the coming months; however, that spike would likely be brief. Read full story
Fed could hold interest rates near zero for years
The Federal Reserve will keep its key interest rates close to zero until inflation exceeds its 2% target, something most Fed board members do not expect to happen before 2023. “Effectively what we are saying is that rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced. Read full story
Weekly jobless claims rise for first time in months
Initial unemployment claims reached 1.4 million last week, marking an increase of 109,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Labor Department. It was the first increase in weekly claims in almost four months. “I think unemployment applications are going to be sticky at this level because many states are seeing a reassertion of the virus,” says Michelle Holder, an economist at John …
4.8M jobs added to payrolls in June, Labor Dept. says
Nonfarm payrolls gained 4.8 million jobs last month, according to the Labor Department, beating expectations from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate declined to 11.1%. Read full story
CBO: Coronavirus recovery could take 10 years
The economy will require as long as a decade to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office says. The CBO has cut its forecast for economic output from 2020 to 2030 by $7.9 trillion, or 3% of GDP. Read full story
US GDP fell faster than previously thought in Q1
US GDP fell at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter, surpassing the earlier estimate of a 4.8% drop, according to the Commerce Department. Economists believe GDP could fall at a much faster pace in the current quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. Read full story
Fed chair sees need for more economic relief
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the pandemic could cause long-term damage to the economy and asked lawmakers to consider additional spending to mitigate the harm. Read full story
CBRE forecasts long recovery period for CRE
The recovery of the US commercial real estate sector will take place after the recovery of the broader economy, and some asset classes could take as long as 30 months to rebound, according to CBRE. “It will take several years for vacancy rates to fall back to their pre-crisis levels,” says CBRE’s Richard Barkham. Read full story
Fed ready to inject more than $5T into system
The Federal Reserve will offer to inject a total of more than $5 trillion in liquidity into funding markets in coming weeks to manage short-term financing rates. Read full story
Powell’s messaging on interest rates will be car...
The market is expecting the Federal Reserve to make another quarter-percentage-point rate cut during its meeting this week, but it is is less clear what signals the Fed will send about future policy decisions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely seek to develop a message that avoids market backlash without suggesting that there definitely will or won’t be additional rate cuts. Read full story
Fed makes 2nd consecutive rate cut
The Federal Reserve has reduced the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2%. Chairman Jerome Powell says that prospects for the US economy are favorable and that any future interest-rate adjustment would be made “meeting by meeting.” Read full story
OECD forecasts slowest global growth in 10 years
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is projecting global economic growth of 2.9% this year, the smallest annual increase in 10 years, as the US-China trade conflict continues. The OECD downgraded its forecast for the US and now expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019. Read full story
Advisors—And Clients—Aren’t Rattled by Market Plunge
Many advisors have trained their clients to expect the kind of market volatility seen Monday. And while most aren’t making any sudden movements, some are tweaking asset allocations. Read full story